To go along with this, I've also gotten my picks down for the weekend. I'm going to post the numbers at which I've bet the games -- some I bet early in the week, to try and catch the line before it moves, and some I don't catch until the day of the game, hoping it'll continue to drop or rise. This is basically what this blog is all about - hence the name. So let's get to the picking.
1. Texas A&M (+10.5) @ South Carolina
Thursday 5pm CT | SEC Network | Columbia, SC
South Carolina is going to be good... but they're hardly ever good on opening weekend. Granted, last year they covered the spread against North Carolina, but SC has been very pedestrian whenever they're a double digit favorite in SEC competition. I think A&M will be undervalued all year because of the loss of Johnny Football, but his replacement, Kenny Hill, ain't no slouch. He knows Sumlin's offense (16 of 22 for 183 yds and 1 TD in mop-up duty last year), and this team has great players on both sides of the ball, including the offensive and defensive lines. They may lose, but I think they keep it within 10.5.
2. Boise St vs Ole Miss (-10.5)
Thursday 7pm CT | ESPN | Atlanta, GA
I don't have a lot of faith in Boise to be able to match up with Ole Miss's talent Thursday night, mainly because, honestly, Chris Peterson left. Not only that, but this Boise team went 8-5 last year, which was the worst season they've had in a while. Seriously, Peterson got hit up for a slew of other jobs over the years, but never took them. The fact that he took the Washington job leads me to believe that he thinks there's not much left on this team, and they're starting to trend downward. Hugh Freeze has a healthy QB returning, and a fairly ferocious defense with a lot of star players. This could be a big year for the Rebels, and playing on national television
3. Penn St (+1) vs Central Florida
Saturday 7:30am CT | ESPN2 | Dublin, IR
James Franklin is the new coach at Penn St, so I know the team will be good at taking advantage of mistakes by the other team. Central Florida lost possibly the best qb in the history of the school. The game is in Ireland, so no homefield advantage one way or another. Penn St has more talent... I'm thinking wrong team favored here.
4. Troy (+2) @ UAB
Saturday 11am CT | FCSC/FoxSportsGo | Birmingham, AL
UAB has been absolutely awful for several years. There are no players there, and they got absolutely drilled in 5 of their last 6 games last season, including the final game where they were demolished 62-27 at home by Southern Miss. Troy, like usual, went 6-6 and, aside from a beatdown at Ole Miss, actually was picking up momentum towards the end of the season, even in defeats against better teams. Larry Blakeny has 12 returning starters this year, and that should make a huge difference. I can't figure out why UAB would be giving up points here... I can't be homefield advantage because, seriously, NOBODY goes to those game. Again, wrong team favored here.
5. Arkansas (+20) @ Auburn
Saturday 3pm CT | SEC Network | Auburn, AL
Arkansas has had 8 months to hear how terrible they are and how good Auburn is. On the flip side, last year, everyone thought that Auburn would be pitiful again, and they had the entire offseason to hear about it. Arkansas, towards the end of last season, really started to put things together. This is the 2nd season under Bret Bielema, who is not a bad football coach, as evidence by his 3 Rose Bowl appearances and Big 10 Titles at Wisconsin. The running game looked significantly better, and, honestly, this team should have beaten Miss St and LSU to end last year. They kept up with Auburn the week after getting trounced 52-0 by Alabama, and then lost at Ole Miss by 10, lost 24-17 to Miss St, and then lost 31-27 to LSU on a 49-yd touchdown pass with 1:15 left in the game. This team is improved, and Auburn is overvalued here. Take the points and Go Hogs.
