Week 14: Here we go

Overall record: 30-31-3 

It's not been good... but I feel a good week coming up before conference championship games.  We're gonna knock this one out.

1. Florida (+7.5) @ Florida St
Saturday 2:30pm CT  |  ESPN
 
Florida St just can't put teams away, and Florida just looks like a much more confident team with Harris at QB.  Not to mention, this is Coach Boom's last game, and these kids would love nothing more than to send him out a winner.  I don't know that they'll win, but after watching FSU struggle against Boston College last week.. and basically everybody before that, I like this one to stay within a touchdown.

2. Colorado St (-7) @ Air Force
Friday 2:30pm CT  |  CBSSN

Jim McElwain has this thing just absolutely rolling at Colorado St.  They are 10-1 on the year so far, and if they can get Boise beat, they would win the MWC outright.  They've still got a shot at one of the big bowls in the CFP pecking order, so I don't look for them to slow down here.  Air Force has been good, but they got rolled at San Diego St last week 30-14, and I think Colo St is better than SDSU.  I look for about a 10 point win here.  34-24ish

3. TCU @ Texas (+7)
Thursday 6:30pm CT  |  FS1

TCU looked baaaaad against Kansas. And Texas looks good.  The game's in Austin, on Thanksgiving, and I think the pressure of the playoff is getting to TCU.  Texas has been a lot better recently, and I think they could pull this one out.

4. Arkansas @ Missouri (+105)
Friday 1:30pm CT  |  CBS

Arkansas has been killin folks 3 of the last 4 games - 45-17 over an improved UAB, a 17-10 loss at Mississippi St, a 17-0 win over LSU, and a 30-0 win over Ole Miss.  However, Missouri finds a way to win football games and, while I don't want to bet against the Hogs, this game is in Mizzou, and if the Tigers win, they're going to Atlanta for the SEC Championship game.  I think Gary Pinkel will have his kids ready to play, and they'll find a way to make the right play at the right time to win this game at the end.

Here are my last 2 weeks' bets.  Absolutely putrid.

Straight Wager 11/22/14 10:28 EST

Result: Wager Lost

Missouri 29 vs Tennessee 21 11/22/14 19:40 EST

Tennessee -5.5 (-110)

 

Straight Wager 11/22/14 10:28 EST

Result: Wager Lost

South Florida 20 vs Memphis 31 11/22/14 16:05 EST

Memphis -20 (-110)

 

Straight Wager 11/22/14 10:28 EST

Result: Wager Won

Mississippi 0 vs Arkansas 30 11/22/14 15:40 EST

Arkansas +3.5 (-120)

 

Straight Wager 11/22/14 10:28 EST

Result: Wager Won

Boston College 17 vs Florida State 20 11/22/14 15:40 EST

Boston College +17 (-115) 

 

Straight Wager 11/14/14 12:55 EST

Result: Wager Won

Clemson 6 vs Georgia Tech 28 11/15/14 12:00 EST

Georgia Tech +125

 

Straight Wager 11/14/14 12:55 EST

Result: Wager Lost

Appalachian State 37 vs Arkansas State 32 11/15/14 15:00 EST

Arkansas State -15 (-110)

 

Straight Wager 11/14/14 12:55 EST

Result: Wager Lost

Virginia Tech 17 vs Duke 16 11/15/14 12:00 EST

Duke -5.5 (-115)

 

Straight Wager 11/14/14 12:55 EST

Result: Wager Won

Utah 20 vs Stanford 17 11/15/14 18:10 EST

Utah +8 (-110)

 

Straight Wager 11/14/14 12:55 EST

Result: Wager Lost

TCU 34 vs Kansas 30 11/15/14 15:08 EST

TCU -28.5 (-110)

Week 12: last week was crap

Overall record: 26-26-3 

Good gracious.  Last week was horrendous.  We went 1-4.  Nothing went our way.  Draws us back to even on the year.  But... we've got 4 weeks left in the season, and we're gonna get that winning record.  Here are this week's picks.


1. Virginia Tech @ Duke (-5.5)
Saturday 11:00am CT  |  ESPNU
 
Duke is on a roll... and Virginia Tech just simply has not been.  With Duke at home, I look for them to win this by at least a touchdown.

Week 11: Quack Attacked, and Spartans show no mercy

Overall record: 25-22-3


1. Ohio St @ Mich St (-3.5)
Saturday 7:00pm CT  |  ESPN
 
Michigan St has been straight up killin people... and Ohio St really has issues on the road (see Penn St, where they needed Nittany Lion miscues AND the refs' help to pull that one out).  This one is in East Lansing, and the Spartans really have something against ol' Urbz and the Buckeyes.  I don't see them showing any mercy.  Should win this one by 17-21.


2. SMU @ Tulsa (-13)
Saturday 11:00am CT  |  CBSSN

Tulsa has shown signs of being able to score, but they just can't hold leads.  Shouldn't be an issue here because SMU couldn't score against air.  Tulsa should put up some nice numbers here and win convincingly.  I love getting 13 instead of 14 here.

3. Louisiana Tech (-4) @ UAB
Saturday 11:00am CT  |  NESN

LaTech is 6-2 against the spread this year, and UAB just got clobbered at Arkansas last week, while the Bulldogs went on the road and beat up Western Kentucky 59-10.  UAB should be able to hang close for a bit, but I'm looking at a 10 point win for Skip Holtz's bunch.

4. Georgia Southern (-13) @ Texas St
Saturday 4:00pm CT  |  ESPN3

Georgia Southern has the triple option working to absolute perfection.  They are 8-1 against the spread so far this year, which is the best in the country.  As long as they're rolling on that streak, I'm rolling with them.  Texas St is good, and it's in their backyard... but Georgia Southern plays a style of ball that nobody has been able to catch up to yet.

5. Oregon @ Utah (+9)
Saturday 9:00pm CT  |  ESPN

It's juuuuust about time for Oregon to lose a game and screw everything up, and man, does this one fit the bill.  Yeah, I know they got a loss out of the way earlier in the year at home, but Salt Lake City isn't an easy place to play.  Utah lost by 3 in overtime at Arizona St last week in one hell of a football game... and if you look at the way Utah plays, it really reminds you of the last couple of Stanford teams that knocked out the Ducks.  I like Utah to at least cover the 9, and with Oregon quickly becoming the media darlings again, look for them to tighten up a bit and give Utah a chance.

Week 10 recap: 3-1-1

Overall record: 25-22-3

Got 3 wins, 1 loss, and 1 push.  That ain't too shabby.  And all of them were soooo close.  Louisville, had they not given up a 40+ yard TD with a minute left, would have covered the +4.5.  But at the same time, if Pitt hadn't missed a 26 yard field goal as time expired, or Auburn not broken Treadwell's leg as he was going into the endzone, we would have lost both of those as well.  Even Colo St gave up a late touchdown to give us the push instead of a win.  Let's see what Lady Luck has in store for us this week.

1. Florida St @ Louisville (+4.5)  | LOSER
Thursday 6:30pm CT  |  ESPN
 
2. Colorado St (-7) @ San Jose St  | PUSH
Saturday 6:00pm CT  |  CBSSN

3. Stanford @ Oregon (-8)  | WINNER
Saturday 6:00pm CT  |  FOX

4. Auburn (+1) @ Ole Miss  | WINNER
Saturday 6:00pm CT  |  ESPN

5. Duke (+3) @ Pitt  | WINNER
Saturday 11:00am CT  |  ESPNU

Week 10: Thursday night ESPN home underdog!

Several games this weekend that I think are straight up wrong team favored.  Should be lots of close games.

1. Florida St @ Louisville (+4.5)
Thursday 6:30pm CT  |  ESPN
 
Smart money is on Louisville tonight - 61% of the bets are coming in on Florida St, and Vegas keeps dropping the number, trying to get more people to bet on the 'Noles.  Gigantic red flag.  Throw in the fact it's the ESPN Thursday night home underdog deal, and you've got an upset in the making.  I'm taking the 4.5 points, but I wouldn't be surprised if they took down Florida St straight up.

Week 9 recap: 3-2. Good to win again

Overall record: 22-21-2

Got 3 wins out of 5.  Only 2 we lost were Mississippi St, by one point, and Ole Miss gave up a late touchdown to LSU and then threw a pick with 2 seconds left to lose the game.

Week 9: Mississippi teams and ATS heavyweights

Week 8 was another 2-3 week, which puts us at 19-19-2.  Ridiculous.  So we're even on the season, which is crap.  We need a good bloodbath weekend.  We're going with a lot of teams that have been absolutely lights out against the spread, and we're going all chalk.  The favorites are a combined 27-3-2 ATS this year.  So here we go.

1. Georgia Southern (-18) @ GeorgiaSt
Saturday 1:00pm CT  |  ESPN3
 
Georgia Southern is 6-1 ATS this year, and Georgia St does not know how to stop high powered offenses.  This number is less than I thought it would be, because once Southern starts scoring, they don't let up.  State's offense can't keep up, so I imagined this would be at least 3 touchdowns.  I'm figuring a 28 point win here for the triple option.

Week 8: Here we go... lots of SEC

Had to put in the picks quick this week... been out of town for most of the week and actually missed College Gameday this morning.  So... all of these games come on later this afternoon.  Knock yourself out.

Cincinnati U vs SMU 10/18/14 15:30 EDT

Cincinnati U -13.5 (-110)

Miami Ohio vs Northern Illinois 10/18/14 17:00 EDT

Northern Illinois -13.5 (-110)

 

Tennessee U vs Mississippi 10/18/14 19:00 EDT

Mississippi -15.5 (-110) 

Kentucky vs LSU 10/18/14 19:30 EDT

Kentucky +10.5 (-105)

Georgia (N) vs Arkansas (N) 10/18/14 16:00 EDT

Arkansas (N) +3 (-110)

 

Week 7: 2-3 again. What kinda crap is that?

Overall record: 17-16-2

Won 2 games... but lost 3 of em... again.  We missed out on a couple of games big time.  It was kinda ridiculous.  We did hit Colorado St's cover and Miss St straight up over Auburn.  It's about time for us to hit another big weekend.  Here's what went down.


1. Colorado St (-2.5) @ Nevada | WINNER  (Colo St 31 - Nevada 24)
Saturday 9:30pm CT  |  CBSSN
 
Colorado St is awesome this year.  That's all that needs to be said.

2. Penn St (+1.5) @ Michigan | LOSER  (Michigan 18 - Penn St 13)
Saturday 6:00pm CT  |  ESPN2

Michigan needed this one... and they covered.  Surprised that they were able to do this, but Penn St's offense is terrible.  Michigan took advantage of miscues and Penn St was not able to recover.

Week 7: Underdogs and letdowns

Last week was only 2-3, so I'm looking for a big week to put us back up.  I've got some underdogs that I expect to win straight up this week, and those would help, along with a team that had a big win last week that could be in letdown spots.

1. Colorado St (-2.5) @ Nevada
Saturday 9:30pm CT  |  CBSSN
 
Colorado St has covered 3 straight, and 4 of 5, and they look like an absolute beast in the MWC this year.  I think they'll be able to handle Nevada on the road, who just had a tough game against Boise St last weekend, but lost at home.

Week 6: 2 and 3... thanks Stanford.

Overall record: 15-13-2

Won 2 games... but lost 3 of em.  2 of the losses were super close... the other never stood a chance.  How ECU gave up 21 points to SMU is beyond me, but the biggest thing was that they only scored 35.  What the crap.

1. Stanford (-2.5) @ Notre Dame  |  LOSER  (Notre Dame 17 - Stanford 14)
 
Stanford's crappy offense struck again, and their defense couldn't stop Golson on 4th and 11 with just over a minute left.  The luck of the Irish, indeed.


2. Baylor (-15) @ Texas  |  WINNER  (Baylor 28 - Texas 7)

Baylor didn't look dominant, but their defense wasn't giving up any ground to a very pedestrian Texas offense.  Texas's defense held Baylor passing game down... but they gave up over 300 yards rushing.  Glad we got the cover here.

3. SMU @ East Carolina (-41.5)  |  LOSER  (ECU 35 - SMU 21)
 
I don't even know what to say here.  I don't even think East Carolina put together a game plan here.  Jeez.

4. Oklahoma (-5.5) @ TCU  |  LOSER  (TCU 37 - Oklahoma 33)

Goodness gracious.  TCU looks like they could be for real.  They got turnovers and converted them into points, and their new offense looked like the real deal against what we thought was an improved Oklahoma defense.  We'll see what TCU's got this week against Baylor.

5. Memphis (+4) @ Cincinnati  |  WINNER  (Memphis 41 - Cinci 14)

Memphis absolutely curb stomped Cinci this weekend.  Their defense is legit and this team could end up going 10-2 this year.  What a turn around for Justin Fuente.  The Tigers better back up the Brinks truck if they want to keep him.


Lines we're looking at this week...

Texas vs Oklahoma (-15)
Cinci @ Miami (-14)
TCU (+10.5) @ Baylor
Auburn @ Miss St (+2.5)
Ole Miss @ Texas A&M (-3)
Penn St (+1) @ Michigan
Colorado St (+1.5) @ Nevada
 

Week 6: Notre Dame ain't real & Art Briles hates the Longhorns

There were a lot of options this week, but I ended up going with a lot of chalk.  Not a lot of underdogs give me hope, and the game I feel strongest about (Alabama -6.5), I won't touch because of my fandom.  So I went with teams that look real against pretenders.

1. Stanford (-2.5) @ Notre Dame
Saturday 12:30pm CT  |  BTN
 
I think Maryland has a really good football team this year, and Indiana's coming off of their biggest win in years.  I want Indiana to prove it to me - I don't think they will.  I think Maryland wins this one straight up.


2. Baylor (-15) @ Texas
Saturday 2:30pm CT  |  CBS

Arkansas looks really good right now.  Texas A&M's defense has been known to be suspect, and Arkansas can exploit a weakness.  Arkansas's defense isn't exactly top notch, so I look for there to be a lot of points scored in this one.  Last year's game was a 41-31 game... and Arkansas is significantly better than that team.  I think this one is really close.

3. SMU @ East Carolina (-41.5)
Saturday 6pm CT  |  ESPN

South Carolina looked terrible against Vanderbilt last week, and Missouri looked even worse at home losing to Indiana, so that took some luster off of this game.  South Carolina is a better team than Missouri, and with Gameday being in town for an ESPN night game, that team and stadium will be fired up.  I think it could be close... but no closer than a touchdown.

4. Oklahoma (-5.5) @ TCU
Saturday 6pm CT  |  ESPNU

Clemson looked ok against Florida St, even though they absolutely blew the game.  UNC can't stop anybody (gave up 70 to ECU last week), so I look for Clemson to roll these dudes.

5. Memphis (+4) @ Cincinnati
Saturday 6:30pm CT  |  FSN

Ole Miss has Alabama coming to Oxford next week, and with a win over Memphis, they will have College Gameday in the Grove for the first time ever.  With a loss to Memphis, College Gameday will head to Starkville to see the Bulldogs and Texas A&M.  Lots of pressure here for the Rebels, and Memphis has looked really good so far this year.  I look for the Tigers to cover in a close game, but they won't pull the upset in Oxford.

Week 5: 2-1-2; the week of the push

Overall record: 13-10-2 (.565) 

Another 2-0 start that quickly went south.  Seems to happen every week.  Not sure exactly why we're so much better at picking day games.  This week we were just a few minutes away from being 5-0, and, instead, we end up 2-1-2 with one last minute loss (thanks South Carolina) and 2 pushes that should have been covers.

Week 5: SEC... and prove it, Indiana.

1. Maryland (+4) @ Indiana
Saturday 12:30pm CT  |  BTN
 
I think Maryland has a really good football team this year, and Indiana's coming off of their biggest win in years.  I want Indiana to prove it to me - I don't think they will.  I think Maryland wins this one straight up.


2. Arkansas (+10) vs Texas A&M
Saturday 2:30pm CT  |  CBS

Arkansas looks really good right now.  Texas A&M's defense has been known to be suspect, and Arkansas can exploit a weakness.  Arkansas's defense isn't exactly top notch, so I look for there to be a lot of points scored in this one.  Last year's game was a 41-31 game... and Arkansas is significantly better than that team.  I think this one is really close.

3. Missouri @ South Carolina (-5)
Saturday 6pm CT  |  ESPN

South Carolina looked terrible against Vanderbilt last week, and Missouri looked even worse at home losing to Indiana, so that took some luster off of this game.  South Carolina is a better team than Missouri, and with Gameday being in town for an ESPN night game, that team and stadium will be fired up.  I think it could be close... but no closer than a touchdown.

4. North Carolina @ Clemson (-15)
Saturday 6pm CT  |  ESPNU

Clemson looked ok against Florida St, even though they absolutely blew the game.  UNC can't stop anybody (gave up 70 to ECU last week), so I look for Clemson to roll these dudes.

5. Memphis (+21) at Ole Miss
Saturday 6:30pm CT  |  FSN

Ole Miss has Alabama coming to Oxford next week, and with a win over Memphis, they will have College Gameday in the Grove for the first time ever.  With a loss to Memphis, College Gameday will head to Starkville to see the Bulldogs and Texas A&M.  Lots of pressure here for the Rebels, and Memphis has looked really good so far this year.  I look for the Tigers to cover in a close game, but they won't pull the upset in Oxford.

Week 4: 2-3... boy, that was rough.

Overall record: 11-9 (.550)

This week was good to start with, but quickly turned sour.  North Carolina looked like garbage against East Carolina, Northern Illinois just didn't have the horses to keep up with Arkansas, and Missouri was trash vs Indiana.  Ugly.


1. Auburn @ Kansas St (+9)  |  WINNER  (Auburn 20 - Kansas St 14)
Thursday 6:30pm CT  |  ESPN  |  Manhattan, KS 
 
Kansas St had the gameplan, and executed wonderfully on defense... but missed multiple field goals and thew a pick in the endzone early.  They had their chances and still found a way to lose the game, but cover the number.


2. Indiana @ Missouri (-14)  |  LOSER  (Indiana 31 - Mizzou 27)
Saturday 3pm CT  |  SEC Network  |  Columbia, MO

Missouri looked absolutely awful.  This game had nothing to do with turnovers or anything flukey - Indiana just played straight up with them the entire ballgame.  Scary for the Tigers.

3. Northern Illinois (+14.5) @ Arkansas   |  LOSER (Arkansas 52 - Northern Illinois 14)
Saturday 6pm CT  |  ESPNU |  Fayetteville, AR

NIU was on a roll... and Arkansas demolished them.  This is a good Razorback team.  They know what they're doing, and they do it really well.  Texas A&M will have their hands full this week.

4. Tulane @ Duke (-17)  |  WINNER  (Duke 47 - Tulane 13)
Saturday 11:30am CT  |  FSN  |  Durham, NC

Duke smoked em.  It was close early... then they came out for the 2nd half and Duke finally got the ball rolling.

5. North Carolina (+3) @ East Carolina  |  LOSER  (ECU 70 - UNC 41)
Saturday 2:30pm CT  |  ESPNU  |  Greenville, NC

  East Carolina is legit this year.  Hangin 70 on North Carolina is impressive.  UNC should be better than this.

Week 4: Thurs night ESPN home underdog strikes again?!

Last week was one helluva week, with us hitting 4 out of 5 picks against the number.  And to help add to that... ESPN has given us the gift of the Thursday night home underdog.  And who are we to go against that trend?

1. Auburn @ Kansas St (+9)
Thursday 6:30pm CT  |  ESPN  |  Manhattan, KS 
Auburn appears to have everything rolling in their direction.  Kansas St has not looked like a world beater in their first two games.  There's literally nothing that's driving me towards this line... except it's the Thursday night ESPN home underdog.  And that gifthorse has been riding for YEARS now.  Every time you think a team is supposed to just demolish somebody else, even on the road... something funky happens on Thursday nights in an opponent's home stadium.  I look for this to be a lil bit of the same.  First road game for Auburn, both teams had last week off, Kansas St is used to facing spread offenses in the Big 12 (cause there's a billion of em), so Auburn's offense isn't so unfamiliar to them.  I think something fishy happens here, so even if K-State doesn't win straight up, I think they'll keep it within the number.  Look for this to be an awesome football game.

Week 3: 4-1... Tulsa, you suck.

Overall record: 9-6 (.600)

This week was good to us.  We took a bad loss with Tulsa, but 4 out of 5 is pretty good.  If we could do that every week... goodness gracious.  Now, with a 3-week sample size for most teams, the lines will get closer, so it may be kinda tough from here on out.  Luckily we got some wins in the first 3 weeks.  Currently, we're averaging 3-2 every week, and that's not too shabby.


1. Toledo @ Cincinnati (-10)  |  WINNER  (Cinci 58 - Toledo 34)
Friday 6pm CT  |  ESPNU  |  Cincinnati, OH 

Cinci took advantage of a depleted Toledo team, and a raucous opening home crowd, then rode QB Gunner Kiel and his 6 passing TDs to a big win.  We thought they'd come out and hammer the Rockets, and they proved us right.  Started out strong, then let Toledo get a lil closer... but ultimately rolled off with a 24 point win.

Week 3: Cinci, Arkansas, and more...

Well, we're currently at .500 on the year.  5 wins and 5 losses.  But I love some of these games this weekend, so lets see what we can do.

1. Toledo @ Cincinnati (-10)
Friday 6pm CT  |  ESPNU  |  Cincinnati, OH 

Amazingly, this is week 3 of the season, and Cinci hasn't played a game yet.  I'm sure Toledo wishes the same thing after losing 3 starters to injury last week against Missouri, including all-star QB Phillip Ely, who had 4 TDs and no picks along with a ton of yards in the first game of the year.  Toledo is starting a brand new QB along with a new cornerback in their first true road test of the year.  Not a good way to kick it off.  Tuberville's Bearcats should roll.

Week 2: 2-3

Overall record: 5-5 (.500)

Well, we didn't fare as well this week as last week.  Still, 2-3 keeps us even on the season, so we're not doing terribly.  We could really use a good week this weekend though to give us some breathing room.  Our goal for the season is 60%.  Here's how the games went...

Week 2 picks

Last week we went 3-2, so anything abover .500 this week would be a great start to the season for us.  I think we've got some good games to knock it out on.

1. Arizona (-7.5) @ UT-San Antonio
Thursday 7pm CT  |  FS1  |  San Antonio, TX 

Week 1: 3-2

 Overall record: 3-2 (.600)

So, here we are, after one week, and we've got a .600 winning percentage, sitting at 3-2 on the year.  We'd like to stay here, so that way we're making money at the end of the season.  Always a good thing.  Here's how we won last week...

I smell college football in the air...

I woke up this morning and noticed something a little different.  The sun was a little brighter.  The birds were chirping a little louder.  Everything just seemed better.  Finally, after that debacle of a football game between Georgia St and Abilene Christian last night (which, in its defense, had some pretty exciting moments), the real college football season is finally upon us.  4 SEC teams kick off tonight, and I couldn't be more excited.

To go along with this, I've also gotten my picks down for the weekend.  I'm going to post the numbers at which I've bet the games -- some I bet early in the week, to try and catch the line before it moves, and some I don't catch until the day of the game, hoping it'll continue to drop or rise.  This is basically what this blog is all about - hence the name.  So let's get to the picking.

1. Texas A&M (+10.5) @ South Carolina
Thursday 5pm CT  |  SEC Network  |  Columbia, SC 

SEC Network Launch and Texas A&M vs South Carolina ATS

Last night was the initial launch of the SEC Network, just 14 days away from the first college football game of the year, which will be shown on the channel.   The party began with the first ever showing of SEC Now, followed by "SEC Storied," and overnight there were classic college football games, showcasing Alabama from the last few years.  The real start is today, when The Paul Finebaum Show starts at 1pm CT on the network.  The show has been on various ESPN channels over the last couple of weeks, as a precursor to what is coming today, but we'll really see how well the show (and its infamous callers) translate to a national television audience.  I'm sure it will be a sight to behold.

Afterthought: Can I make money betting against Johnny Football?

Preseason football isn't something you'd like to bet on regularly, if at all.  NFL games where the coaches have literally nothing to play for means you can expect the unexpected.  There's no telling who is going to play, or for how long, etc.  Basically, they are scrimmages against other teams.

So, I was looking at the point spreads for Saturday night's Browns vs Lions game in Detroit... and I noticed that the Browns were giving up 1.5 points.  On the road.  At a very talented Lions team.  And yeah, it's preseason football, but it is football, and there's just no reason on earth why the Browns should have been favored in that game.