Week 10: Thursday night ESPN home underdog!

Several games this weekend that I think are straight up wrong team favored.  Should be lots of close games.

1. Florida St @ Louisville (+4.5)
Thursday 6:30pm CT  |  ESPN
 
Smart money is on Louisville tonight - 61% of the bets are coming in on Florida St, and Vegas keeps dropping the number, trying to get more people to bet on the 'Noles.  Gigantic red flag.  Throw in the fact it's the ESPN Thursday night home underdog deal, and you've got an upset in the making.  I'm taking the 4.5 points, but I wouldn't be surprised if they took down Florida St straight up.

Week 9 recap: 3-2. Good to win again

Overall record: 22-21-2

Got 3 wins out of 5.  Only 2 we lost were Mississippi St, by one point, and Ole Miss gave up a late touchdown to LSU and then threw a pick with 2 seconds left to lose the game.

Week 9: Mississippi teams and ATS heavyweights

Week 8 was another 2-3 week, which puts us at 19-19-2.  Ridiculous.  So we're even on the season, which is crap.  We need a good bloodbath weekend.  We're going with a lot of teams that have been absolutely lights out against the spread, and we're going all chalk.  The favorites are a combined 27-3-2 ATS this year.  So here we go.

1. Georgia Southern (-18) @ GeorgiaSt
Saturday 1:00pm CT  |  ESPN3
 
Georgia Southern is 6-1 ATS this year, and Georgia St does not know how to stop high powered offenses.  This number is less than I thought it would be, because once Southern starts scoring, they don't let up.  State's offense can't keep up, so I imagined this would be at least 3 touchdowns.  I'm figuring a 28 point win here for the triple option.

Week 8: Here we go... lots of SEC

Had to put in the picks quick this week... been out of town for most of the week and actually missed College Gameday this morning.  So... all of these games come on later this afternoon.  Knock yourself out.

Cincinnati U vs SMU 10/18/14 15:30 EDT

Cincinnati U -13.5 (-110)

Miami Ohio vs Northern Illinois 10/18/14 17:00 EDT

Northern Illinois -13.5 (-110)

 

Tennessee U vs Mississippi 10/18/14 19:00 EDT

Mississippi -15.5 (-110) 

Kentucky vs LSU 10/18/14 19:30 EDT

Kentucky +10.5 (-105)

Georgia (N) vs Arkansas (N) 10/18/14 16:00 EDT

Arkansas (N) +3 (-110)

 

Week 7: 2-3 again. What kinda crap is that?

Overall record: 17-16-2

Won 2 games... but lost 3 of em... again.  We missed out on a couple of games big time.  It was kinda ridiculous.  We did hit Colorado St's cover and Miss St straight up over Auburn.  It's about time for us to hit another big weekend.  Here's what went down.


1. Colorado St (-2.5) @ Nevada | WINNER  (Colo St 31 - Nevada 24)
Saturday 9:30pm CT  |  CBSSN
 
Colorado St is awesome this year.  That's all that needs to be said.

2. Penn St (+1.5) @ Michigan | LOSER  (Michigan 18 - Penn St 13)
Saturday 6:00pm CT  |  ESPN2

Michigan needed this one... and they covered.  Surprised that they were able to do this, but Penn St's offense is terrible.  Michigan took advantage of miscues and Penn St was not able to recover.

Week 7: Underdogs and letdowns

Last week was only 2-3, so I'm looking for a big week to put us back up.  I've got some underdogs that I expect to win straight up this week, and those would help, along with a team that had a big win last week that could be in letdown spots.

1. Colorado St (-2.5) @ Nevada
Saturday 9:30pm CT  |  CBSSN
 
Colorado St has covered 3 straight, and 4 of 5, and they look like an absolute beast in the MWC this year.  I think they'll be able to handle Nevada on the road, who just had a tough game against Boise St last weekend, but lost at home.

Week 6: 2 and 3... thanks Stanford.

Overall record: 15-13-2

Won 2 games... but lost 3 of em.  2 of the losses were super close... the other never stood a chance.  How ECU gave up 21 points to SMU is beyond me, but the biggest thing was that they only scored 35.  What the crap.

1. Stanford (-2.5) @ Notre Dame  |  LOSER  (Notre Dame 17 - Stanford 14)
 
Stanford's crappy offense struck again, and their defense couldn't stop Golson on 4th and 11 with just over a minute left.  The luck of the Irish, indeed.


2. Baylor (-15) @ Texas  |  WINNER  (Baylor 28 - Texas 7)

Baylor didn't look dominant, but their defense wasn't giving up any ground to a very pedestrian Texas offense.  Texas's defense held Baylor passing game down... but they gave up over 300 yards rushing.  Glad we got the cover here.

3. SMU @ East Carolina (-41.5)  |  LOSER  (ECU 35 - SMU 21)
 
I don't even know what to say here.  I don't even think East Carolina put together a game plan here.  Jeez.

4. Oklahoma (-5.5) @ TCU  |  LOSER  (TCU 37 - Oklahoma 33)

Goodness gracious.  TCU looks like they could be for real.  They got turnovers and converted them into points, and their new offense looked like the real deal against what we thought was an improved Oklahoma defense.  We'll see what TCU's got this week against Baylor.

5. Memphis (+4) @ Cincinnati  |  WINNER  (Memphis 41 - Cinci 14)

Memphis absolutely curb stomped Cinci this weekend.  Their defense is legit and this team could end up going 10-2 this year.  What a turn around for Justin Fuente.  The Tigers better back up the Brinks truck if they want to keep him.


Lines we're looking at this week...

Texas vs Oklahoma (-15)
Cinci @ Miami (-14)
TCU (+10.5) @ Baylor
Auburn @ Miss St (+2.5)
Ole Miss @ Texas A&M (-3)
Penn St (+1) @ Michigan
Colorado St (+1.5) @ Nevada
 

Week 6: Notre Dame ain't real & Art Briles hates the Longhorns

There were a lot of options this week, but I ended up going with a lot of chalk.  Not a lot of underdogs give me hope, and the game I feel strongest about (Alabama -6.5), I won't touch because of my fandom.  So I went with teams that look real against pretenders.

1. Stanford (-2.5) @ Notre Dame
Saturday 12:30pm CT  |  BTN
 
I think Maryland has a really good football team this year, and Indiana's coming off of their biggest win in years.  I want Indiana to prove it to me - I don't think they will.  I think Maryland wins this one straight up.


2. Baylor (-15) @ Texas
Saturday 2:30pm CT  |  CBS

Arkansas looks really good right now.  Texas A&M's defense has been known to be suspect, and Arkansas can exploit a weakness.  Arkansas's defense isn't exactly top notch, so I look for there to be a lot of points scored in this one.  Last year's game was a 41-31 game... and Arkansas is significantly better than that team.  I think this one is really close.

3. SMU @ East Carolina (-41.5)
Saturday 6pm CT  |  ESPN

South Carolina looked terrible against Vanderbilt last week, and Missouri looked even worse at home losing to Indiana, so that took some luster off of this game.  South Carolina is a better team than Missouri, and with Gameday being in town for an ESPN night game, that team and stadium will be fired up.  I think it could be close... but no closer than a touchdown.

4. Oklahoma (-5.5) @ TCU
Saturday 6pm CT  |  ESPNU

Clemson looked ok against Florida St, even though they absolutely blew the game.  UNC can't stop anybody (gave up 70 to ECU last week), so I look for Clemson to roll these dudes.

5. Memphis (+4) @ Cincinnati
Saturday 6:30pm CT  |  FSN

Ole Miss has Alabama coming to Oxford next week, and with a win over Memphis, they will have College Gameday in the Grove for the first time ever.  With a loss to Memphis, College Gameday will head to Starkville to see the Bulldogs and Texas A&M.  Lots of pressure here for the Rebels, and Memphis has looked really good so far this year.  I look for the Tigers to cover in a close game, but they won't pull the upset in Oxford.

Week 5: 2-1-2; the week of the push

Overall record: 13-10-2 (.565) 

Another 2-0 start that quickly went south.  Seems to happen every week.  Not sure exactly why we're so much better at picking day games.  This week we were just a few minutes away from being 5-0, and, instead, we end up 2-1-2 with one last minute loss (thanks South Carolina) and 2 pushes that should have been covers.