Last week was one helluva week, with us hitting 4 out of 5 picks against the number. And to help add to that... ESPN has given us the gift of the Thursday night home underdog. And who are we to go against that trend?
1. Auburn @ Kansas St (+9)
Thursday 6:30pm CT | ESPN | Manhattan, KS
Auburn appears to have everything rolling in their direction. Kansas St has not looked like a world beater in their first two games. There's literally nothing that's driving me towards this line... except it's the Thursday night ESPN home underdog. And that gifthorse has been riding for YEARS now. Every time you think a team is supposed to just demolish somebody else, even on the road... something funky happens on Thursday nights in an opponent's home stadium. I look for this to be a lil bit of the same. First road game for Auburn, both teams had last week off, Kansas St is used to facing spread offenses in the Big 12 (cause there's a billion of em), so Auburn's offense isn't so unfamiliar to them. I think something fishy happens here, so even if K-State doesn't win straight up, I think they'll keep it within the number. Look for this to be an awesome football game.
2. Indiana @ Missouri (-14)
Saturday 3pm CT | SEC Network | Columbia, MO
Indiana regularly craps the bed against good opposition, and I think it's safe to say that last year for Missouri was not a fluke. The Tigers have a pretty good football team, and they've handled two fairly decent mid-major teams (Toledo and UCF) by blowing them out in the last two weeks. There should be a lot of scoring on both sides, but I look for Mizzou to handle these guys about the same as they handled UCF... by 3 or 4 touchdowns.
3. Northern Illinois (+14.5) @ Arkansas
Saturday 6pm CT | ESPNU | Fayetteville, AR
NIU is playing really good football. Now, so is Arkansas, but Arky has Texas A&M next week, and is coming off of a really big win at Texas Tech. I look for Northern Illinois to keep this game within 2 touchdowns. Honestly, I just love this game because I caught the .5 points. I think NIU has a chance to be a great team this year. Not to mention, this line opened at -8 and quickly jumped to -14.5... I always tend to go against the public when it jumps more than 3 points, and this is a perfect example.
4. Tulane @ Duke (-17)
Saturday 11:30am CT | FSN | Durham, NC
Tulane is playing better than they have been over the last few years. They're at least respectable... but Duke is just a much better team. I look for Duke to win this one by at least 3 TDs.
5. North Carolina (+3) @ East Carolina
Saturday 2:30pm CT | ESPNU | Greenville, NC
This line opened with North Carolina -2... and then jumped to East Carolina -3. That's a 5 point difference over the last few days. It's a fairly big move, and one caused by East Carolina beating Virginia Tech. Teams that come off great performances in games they weren't supposed to win, well, they generally come back to earth the next week. North Carolina can score. Virginia Tech can't. I think UNC wins this game straight up.
