Several games this weekend that I think are straight up wrong team favored. Should be lots of close games.
1. Florida St @ Louisville (+4.5)
Thursday 6:30pm CT | ESPN
Smart money is on Louisville tonight - 61% of the bets are coming in on Florida St, and Vegas keeps dropping the number, trying to get more people to bet on the 'Noles. Gigantic red flag. Throw in the fact it's the ESPN Thursday night home underdog deal, and you've got an upset in the making. I'm taking the 4.5 points, but I wouldn't be surprised if they took down Florida St straight up.
2. Colorado St (-7) @ San Jose St
Saturday 6:00pm CT | CBSSN
Colorado St has absolutely been rolling, currenty 7-1 on the year and winners of their last 6 straight. They were a spread covering machine early, but has lost the last 2 against the number. Their offense has weapons, and their defense is stout. San Jose St does not match up well with this team, and I think they catch back up to the number this week. Look for a win by 10-14 points.
3. Stanford @ Oregon (-8)
Saturday 6:00pm CT | FOX
Stanford has won the past 2 against the Ducks, and ruined their national championship hopes both times. But, in those years, Stanford's offense was much more competent and explosive. This year, not so much. Stanford's defense is good, but not what it was under Derek Mason, who is now at Vanderbilt. Oregon's problem has been on defense... not offense. This is the team that put up 46 on Michigan St. If Stanford can't score, they won't be able to cover this number. I look for Oregon to take out some aggression on the Cardinal. 2 or 3 touchdown win for the ducks.
4. Auburn (+1) @ Ole Miss
Saturday 6:00pm CT | ESPN
Ole Miss is no longer invincible, and LSU showed (just like Alabama did early) that Ole Miss's defense is susceptible to the run. Auburn will take advantage of that. Seems like a lot of frustration between Bo Wallace and the Ole Miss coaching staff right now, so I can foresee another showing by "Bad Bo." Auburn should win this game straight up, even on the road.
5. Duke (+3) @ Pitt
Saturday 11:00am CT | ESPNU
Duke is 6-1, and has won their last 2 against better competition than Pittsburgh. The game is on the road, but Duke had a bye week to prepare. Pitt has lost 4 of their last 5 and looked completely inept last week in getting demolished by a Georgia Tech team that Duke beat on the road 3 weeks ago. I look for Duke to win this one straight up.
