Week 8 was another 2-3 week, which puts us at 19-19-2. Ridiculous. So we're even on the season, which is crap. We need a good bloodbath weekend. We're going with a lot of teams that have been absolutely lights out against the spread, and we're going all chalk. The favorites are a combined 27-3-2 ATS this year. So here we go.
1. Georgia Southern (-18) @ GeorgiaSt
Saturday 1:00pm CT | ESPN3
Georgia Southern is 6-1 ATS this year, and Georgia St does not know how to stop high powered offenses. This number is less than I thought it would be, because once Southern starts scoring, they don't let up. State's offense can't keep up, so I imagined this would be at least 3 touchdowns. I'm figuring a 28 point win here for the triple option.
2. Memphis (-24) @ SMU
Saturday 11:00am CT | WatchESPN
SMU lost to Cinci 41-3 at home last week... same team Memphis beat on the road 41-14. The Tigers have had a week off to lick their wounds. Their defense is still for real, and after losing to Houston last week, they're ready to bounce back and lay the wood to somebody. No better team for that than the Mustangs, who just cannot seem to score a touchdown against anyone not named ECU. This should be a massacre.
3. Miss St (-15) @ Kentucky
Saturday 2:30pm CT | CBS
Miss St has had a week off, while Kentucky went to Baton Rouge and got demolished by a mediocre LSU team 41-3 last week. Kentucky's improved this year, but State is playing on a whole different level. Another game that I was surprised wasn't at least 3 touchdowns. State is 5-1 ATS this year (6-0 on some books) and they'll add to that.
4. Ole Miss (-3.5) @ LSU
Saturday 6:15pm CT | ESPN
Ole Miss's defense is absolutely lights out, and LSU, despite being able to muster something off of mistakes by Florida and Kentucky, still doesn't know what they're doing. They needed 3 turnovers by Jeff Driskel to win in the Swamp, and last week's game got out of hand early thanks to Kentucky's ineptitude and some good special teams plays. The two young Tiger QBs will make mistakes early and often against Hugh Freeze's team, and, even if this thing is close, Ole Miss will win by more than 3.5. The Rebels don't beat themselves, but LSU does.
5. Texas Tech @ TCU (-23.5)
Saturday 2:30pm CT | FOX
TCU is for real this year. They absolutely demolished Oklahoma St last week, and Texas Tech has been awful. TCU's new offense is rolling, and their defense is just as lights out as it always has been. There's something special brewing with Gary Patterson's team, who is 6-0 against the spread this year. Look for them to demolish Tech early, and not let up.
